Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Apr 8

Last weekend offered yet another unpredictable frame at the box office. While anybody could have told you that Hop would take the top spot and that Source Code and Insidious would follow, very few predicted the actual numbers accurately. The jelly bean-pooping Easter bunnies earned a whopping $37.5m (nearly as much as the more publicized Rango did last month) and the $1m horror film from a first-time distributor was a smashing success with a $13.3m opening. On top of that, both Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer continued their respective streaks of remarkable holds, despite a crowded field. Four new films open this weekend and, while it is unlikely any of them will take the box office crown from Hop, there will surely be quite a battle for #2.

Opening on the greatest number of screens is Arthur, a remake of the 1981 comedy in which Russell Brand re-imagines the Dudley Moore role. Despite a relatively funny ad campaign, the film has a lot of hurdles in the way of its success. First, star Brand has never opened a PG-13 rated comedy; in fact, he has only really headlined one film (last year’s R-rated Get Him to the Greek, produced by Judd Apatow). Thus, while teenage audiences certainly know of Brand from his marriage to pop-star Katy Perry and his boisterous public appearances (like that on tonight’s “American Idol”), it is doubtful that many of them will see Arthur because of him. Secondly, the movie is unlikely to be the “first choice” of most 17-35-year-old comedy fans, as the stoner gag-festYour Highness (discussed later) is also opening this weekend and it is directly targeted at them. Lastly, Arthur has received terrible reviews, meaning older fans of the original (those most conscious of what critics say) may also not turn out. This could all spell crisis–remember the Alfie remake with Jude Law that only opened to $6.2m?–but something in me says Arthur will avoid a full-fledged disaster. Underperforming PG-13 comedies without stars generally open in the realm of Accepted’s $10m… Giving Arthur a moderate boost for the star-power of Brand, Jennifer Garner, and Helen Mirren, I think we’re likely to see a first-weekend gross of around $13 million.

As for Your Highness… the reviews also stink, with the Tomatometer currently sitting at 27%. This could hurt the box office to some degree, as one of its main target audiences is the Internet-fanboy community, which pays attention to Rotten Tomatoes. Then again, with the hot young cast of James Franco, Natalie Portman, and Zooey Deschanel, plus the slightly uglier and older (but just as funny) Danny McBride, it is hard to fathom too many viewers being lost to early Internet-chatter. There are two movies that instantly spring to mind as comparisons: Year One ($19.6m), starring Jack Black and Michael Cera, and Will Ferrell’s Land of the Lost ($18.8m), because both were “ancient history” based, out-there comedies with hip stars. However, both were rated PG-13 and came out in the summer, which made them more broadly-appealing than the R-rated April release Your Highness. Thus, I think Your Highness is likely to open 25% lower than the average of those two films’ openings, which comes out to $14.4 million.

Next up is Hanna, directed by Joe Wright (Pride and Prejudice, Atonement, The Soloist) and starring Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones) as an elite teenage assassin. On one hand, the movie should have a low-profile opening: its cast and crew have an artsy pedigree and it is being released by indie distributor Focus Features. But, then again, the movie has a lot going for it: great reviews, thrilling ads that highlight the assassin element, and an inclusive PG-13 rating. For those reasons, I think the film will open better than many would first assume, likely just a tick below Focus’ last “big” release, The American ($13.2m). Sure, that film had George Clooney on its side, but counterbalancing that fact, it was also a lot slower-paced and was rated R. All considered, I figure Hanna will be good for around $12.5 million.

Lastly, there is Soul Surfer, the latest “inspirational true story,” about Bethany Hamilton, the teenage surfer whose arm was bitten off by a shark. While that seems like the domain of an after-school special (and the middling reviews indicate that it is indeed), distributor Sony is giving the movie a hard sell, with a big ad-blitz and promotion encouraging church-group buyouts. The result should be somewhere between Lords of Dogtown ($5.6m / $6.4m inflated) and Glory Road ($13.6m / $14.9m inflated). Averaging the two gives Soul Surfer an opening of $10.7m, which sounds about right to me.

And there you have it… Given the relative closeness of my four predictions, it is not unfeasible that the order could be the complete reverse. I sure hope not, however — I have been in quite a forecasting slump lately, and it would be nice to finally rebound. Either way, I’ll be back to do it again next Thursday. Until then…

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Hop … $21.8m ($6,858 PTA) -41.9%
2. Your Highness … $14.4m ($5,200 PTA)
3. Arthur … $13.0m ($3,968 PTA)
4. Hanna … $12.5m ($4,931 PTA)
5. Soul Surfer … $10.7m ($4,432 PTA)
6. Source Code … $9.2m ($3,097 PTA) -37.9%
7. Insidious … $6.4m ($2,646 PTA) -51.8%
8. Limitless … $6.0m ($2,260 PTA) -35.5%
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules … $5.2m ($1,805 PTA) -48.2%
10. The Lincoln Lawyer … $4.4m ($1,818 PTA) -35.6%