Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Jan 6

Paramount executives hope to not look like this after reading the weekend box office report.

After a four month hiatus, during which time I completed college, I am back at the box office predictions game. Miss me? Like it or not, here is my take on the coming weekend…

The big movie opening this weekend is Paramount’s camcorder exorcism horror film, The Devil Inside. The obvious comparison would be Lionsgate’s very similar The Last Exorcism, which did resoundingly well back in August 2010, with $20.4 million opening weekend. However, there are two significant differences between the movies: The Devil Inside is rated R (as opposed to the more inclusive PG-13 of The Last Exorcism) and it is playing in 600 less theaters. Not to mention, The Last Exorcism got a “D” CinemaScore in audience exit polling, so if prospective viewers make any mental connotation between the two, they are likely to think twice about The Devil Inside. Thus, I think it is safe to say that $20.4m is out of reach for The Devil Inside.

The tricky thing about this prediction is that there aren’t many good R-rated comparisons in the quasi-doc supernatural genre. The Paranormal Activity franchise is all that comes to mind, but its mammoth box office take is rather unique; I don’t think anyone is predicting that The Devil Inside will ascend to such heights. The closest cousin I can think of is Quarantine, the 2008 R-rated found-footage outbreak film, which pulled in $14.2m opening weekend. It also had a more comparable theater count to The Devil Inside (2,461 vs. 2,285). Another good comparison (albeit rated PG-13) is The Fourth Kind, which also pretended to be “real” – it grossed $12.2m opening weekend in 2,527 theaters. These two films would indicate that The Devil Inside will likely open in the low teens. However, because it is the only new wide release (meaning limited competition) and ticket prices have inflated a bit since those two opened, I am predicting that The Devil Inside makes a full $15 million opening weekend.

The other “opener” of the weekend is Focus’ Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (read my rave review), which has been playing very well in limited release since December 9. It now goes wide, into 809 theaters. Despite the great reviews and the Oscar buzz, anyone expecting a King’s Speech-style breakout is deluded, because this isn’t a crowd-pleaser – it’s a challenging, confusing, even maddening piece of work. Those who put in the effort will be wholly rewarded, but how many multiplex-goers are willing to put in the effort remains to be seen. I can’t imagine the CinemaScore topping a B, because anyone going in expecting the next James Bond is bound to be disappointed.

That all said, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has great momentum and buzz going into this weekend, so even if there is some bad word of mouth later on, it should perform very well by platform release standards in the imminent future. In terms of story and audience, the movie it reminds me the most of is Robert De Niro’s The Good Shepherd, which opened in three times the theaters on Christmas weekend of 2006. That makes it a tough comparison for prediction purposes, but I wonder if Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy might be able to capture the same box office The Good Shepherd did exactly five years ago (its third weekend in release). Using that number ($6.4m) for comparison purposes, rather than the opening weekend figure, offsets the difference in theaters. Adjusted for inflation, that would give Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy a $7.2 million wide opening.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like (PTAs to come based on final theater counts):

1. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol … $15.8m   -46.3%
2. The Devil Inside … $15.0m
3. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (review) … $10.0m   -52.1%
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (review) … $8.6m   -42.0%
5. War Horse … $8.6m   -40.4%
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked … $8.4m   -48.7%
7. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (review) … $7.2m   +663%
8. We Bought a Zoo … $6.8m   -48.6%
9. The Adventures of Tintin (review) … $6.4m   -44.0%
10. New Year’s Eve … $2.2m   -65.3%