Box-Office Predictions for the Weekend of 7/28/06-7/30/06

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Michael Mann returns to the box-office this weekend with Colin Farrell, Jamie Foxx, and Gong Li in tow; Miami Vice should be a big one. Not at all in comparison to the Pirates 2 mania, of course, but the filmmaker’s got an excellent track record. Let’s take a little time to evaluate the probable box-office intakes of this weekend’s four openers:

Miami Vice - This time two years ago, Mann’s Collateral (also starring Jamie Foxx) took in $24,701,458 in 3,188 theatres for a $7,748 per-screen average. Vice is being released on a similar platform in around 150 less theatres, but I think we’re headed for around a $29.5 million opening take due to added interest in this project because of the abundance of fans of the TV-show that it’s based on. The figure should also be comparable to Inside Man’s $28,954,945, which played to a similar adult-audience. The Hollywood Stock Exchange re-adjust should be around H$82.60, making it a long.

The Ant Bully isn’t receiving as much promotion as last weekend’s Monster House, which took in $22,217,226, but it has two things going for it that its animated-counterpart didn’t have: a broader audience (younger children won’t be frightened by its content) and several IMAX screens. I don’t think that the film will match Monster House, due to the fact that the two will actually have to compete with each other (MH’s opening weekend was totally open for the animated genre), but it should do some solid business. The also-ant-related Antz took in $17,195,160 for an opening back in 1998. This should do a comparable figure around $18 million, making its HSX re-adjust around H$50.40. Currently, it’s a long.

John Tucker Must Die is going to be terrible, but its teenage target-audience won’t care. The film has promotional-materials everywhere and is opening at a narrow-but-only-necessary 2,560 venues. I think its juvenile antics will have about the same appeal as earlier this year’s Stick It ($10,803,610), but perhaps extend to a slightly larger older audience. Expect a debut of about $13 million giving it an HSX re-adjust at around H$36.40 and potentially a judgment call depending on tomorrow’s increase/decrease.

The weekend’s other major-release, Scoop, is opening in 537 theatres, so it won’t get the same opening-adjust treatment on HSX as the other three. It seems to be a retread of all of the other recent Woody Allen comedies, except boasts Scarlett Johansson, who should raise its opening-take by about $1 million from Allen’s similar Hollywood Ending, which did $2 million, making its opening take around $3 million. The current stock-price is $10.99 and, in eight weeks, the film should take in just short of that. No play.

Tomorrow, I’ll be back to post a Lady in the Water review on Bucket Reviews and share my thoughts on another topic here.