Box-Office Predictions for the Weekend of 8/4/06-8/6/06

Archive note: The original top-of-post image (talladega5.jpg) has not been recovered. Historical source URL: http://us.movies1.yimg.com/movies.yahoo.com/images/hv/photo/movie_pix/columbia_pictures/talladega_nights__the_ballad_of_ricky_bobby/will_ferrell/talladega5.jpg.

“Help me Jesus! Help me Oprah Winfrey! Help me Tom Cruise!” seems to be the Line of the Moment, as Will Ferrell’s Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby cruises into theatres this weekend at a massive 3,803 sites. Ferrell’s previous films have always done well, but this one should end up the most successful, given its added appeal to both young kids (despite the PG-13 rating) and NASCAR fans. I see it debuting 25% higher than Ferrell’s Anchorman (which did $28.4 million, respectively), putting its weekend take at $35.5 million. At current HSX prices, it’s a short (it should re-adjust around H$99.40), but I wouldn’t be surprised if it fell six dollars tomorrow before the stock halts, which’d render a no play.

Three other films also open this weekend.

The animated Barnyard should do slightly better than The Ant Bully, but due to their similar appeal (I actually think the latter film probably sucked in more adults), I can’t see it posting much higher numbers. Talladega Nights should suck in most kids above the age of seven anyway. I’d say a debut of around $11 million is in-store, which, for the moment, means it’s a short, but, like with the Will Ferrell vehicle, it may end up being a no play (or even a long) come time for halt.

Lion’s Gate’s horror film, The Descent, is getting great reviews, but not generating the kind of buzz that Hostel did earlier this year. I see it doing business similar to 28 Days Later, which took in $10.1 million. At such a price, the re-adjust would be around H$28.8, making the film another short for now, but potential no play.

The Night Listener has been gathering dust on studio shelves for awhile, I presume, but the Robin Williams/Toni Collette feature hits theatres Friday, as well. Most don’t know that Williams plays a gay character in the film, which could hurt its legs when its older, more conservative target audience gets word. Nevertheless, I would expect it to have about a $4,800 per theatre average at its 1,363 sites, giving it a box-office take of $6.5 million. It’s a long on HSX, with a potential re-adjust of around H$18.20.

Oliver Stone’s WTC opens on Wednesday; I’ll chime in with my thoughts on its box-office potential later in the week.