Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Apr 1

Welcome to another round of box office predictions. Last weekend, I overestimated the thought-to-be big-ticket Sucker Punch considerably, but otherwise improved on my embarrassing forecast for the prior frame. Sure, I low-balled Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer as far as holdovers were concerned, but who could have guessed those films would see such small drops? Let’s hope that I can nail this weekend on the head and get into a predicting groove I unfortunately haven’t possessed in months. Without further adieu…

Nearly everyone is in agreement that the winner of this weekend will be Hop, the live-action children’s film starring CGI Easter Bunnies. With previews that tout “From the makers of Despicable Me,” last year’s mammoth animated hit, and many young kids out of school for spring break, there is every reason to believe Hop will excel. Some may argue that it faces competition for families from Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules, but I would counter that said families will have no problem seeing both (if they haven’t seen the former already). Not to mention, those with kids under age six will invariably gravitate toward the younger-skewing Hop.

There are a lot of box-office comparisons for Hop because many other films have featured similar CGI critters. The most famous is Alvin and the Chipmunks ($44.3m), but it would take a miracle for this original to reach the level of that incarnation of the age-old, popular franchise. (Though, it should be noted, the first Garfield movie, also based on a famous source, only pulled $21.7m in 2004, $25.5m accounting for inflation.) More reasonable high-end comparisons are G-Force ($31.7m), Beverly Hills Chihuahua ($29.3m), and the first Cats & Dogs ($27.1m inflated). But the genre is not always successful, so let’s also factor in some failures for balance: Marmaduke ($11.6m), Underdog ($11.6m), and Racing Stripes ($13.9m, $15.8m inflated). If you take the average of all those films, you get a solid $24.6m for Hop. But, given the strong ad campaign and the uniqueness of bunnies who many will undoubtedly find cute / irresistible, I say it deserves a 10% bump on that figure. My final prediction is, therefore, $27.1 million for Hop.

Next up is Source Code, the somewhat cerebral-skewing sci-fi picture from Duncan Jones, who directed the indie-hit Moon starring Sam Rockwell. Outside of the incomparable Inception, “smart” PG-13 films in this genre that are pitched to mass audiences are somewhat hard to come by. The only movie that comes strongly to mind is The Box, Richard Kelly’s financial bomb that only opened to $7.6m, but Source Code seems much campier and therefore broader than that. I think the best two comparisons, which also mix brains and brawn, are the Nicolas Cage hit Knowing ($24.6m) and the Denzel Washington/Tony Scott collaboration Deja Vu ($20.6m). Less comparable but also worth mentioning are Eagle Eye ($29.2m), which also starred Michelle Monaghan, and the recent Unknown ($21.9m). I think the best prediction here is formed by averaging the grosses of all five aforementioned films, which gives you a solid $20.8 million opening for Source Code.

The last film being released this weekend is Insidious, directed by Saw’s James Wan and produced by Paranormal Activity’s Oren Peli. While the movie definitely won’t reach the fiscal height of those two films–it is a much more traditional haunted-house picture, drawing lovingly from horror’s past–I can say that it is terrific and that you should see it. (My review is here.) Insidious should open comparably to other R-rated, niche horror films, although it is superior to most of the ones I’m about to list. They are: The Ruins ($8m), Jennifer’s Body ($6.9m), Splice ($7.4m), Orphan ($12.9m), and Let Me In ($5.1m). Put them all into the averaging blender and you get an opening of $8.1 million for Insidious, which isn’t too shabby when you consider its rumored $1 million budget. **EDIT 11:15 p.m. Thu** I have just been informed that the movie is actually rated PG-13, which makes sense given there is no blood or gore, but I assumed R because it is very thematically dark. However, given the broader audience this allows the film, I am upping my initial prediction 20% to 9.7 million.

So there you have it. Not much of a battle this weekend, unless Hop comes in dramatically lower than expectations and you see Source Code take a surprise #1. I wouldn’t hold my breath for that scenario, however, given the tried-and-true nature of “lovable” CGI-animal stars.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Hop … $27.1m ($7,576 PTA)
2. Source Code … $20.8m ($7,025 PTA)
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 … $10.9m ($3,440 PTA) -54.1%
4. Insidious … $9.7m ($4,028 PTA)
5. Limitless … $9.1m ($3,206 PTA) -39.6%
6. The Lincoln Lawyer … $6.9m ($2,549 PTA) -35.8%
7. Sucker Punch … $6.2m ($2,044 PTA) -67.5%
8. Rango … $5.6m (PTA TBD on theater count) -42.7%
9. Paul … $4.0m ($1,543 PTA) -49.1%
10. Battle: Los Angeles … $3.8m ($1,679 PTA) -49.9%