Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Feb 3

Happy Friday and welcome back to my box office predictions column. After writing five reviews for this weekend’s openers—Big Miracle, Chronicle, The Woman in Black, Declaration of War, and Kill List—I’m anxious to flee my office chair and plop into bed, so let’s get right into things…

Most Americans associate this weekend with the Super Bowl, not the movie theater, but this has historically been a decent frame to release two types of films: teen horror (The Roommate, The Messengers, When a Stranger Calls) and women’s counterprogramming (Dear John, Because I Said So). CBS Films hopes they’ve combined both into one with The Woman in Black, a ghost story that happens to star a female favorite, Harry Potter’s Daniel Radcliffe. But between CBS’s abysmal track record in opening films thus far (their best weekend was The Back-Up Plan’s underwhelming $12.2m) and the found-footage superhero movie Chronicle buzzing among teens (more on that next), The Woman in Black may not prove such an easy sell. Also, as I write in my review, its old-fashioned brand of storytelling is unlikely to scare many, which could potentially result in bad word-of-mouth and therefore frontloading. Still, the worst PG-13 horror opening over Superbowl weekend in recent years was The Uninvited’s $10.3m. With Radcliffe in the mix, I can’t imagine this opening any less than 20% higher than that film, which didn’t have any big names. That would put The Woman in Black at $12.4 million on the weekend.

The real threat to break out this weekend is Chronicle, which has surprisingly been receiving accolades from critics (I was a bit more measured in my praise), has been buzzing on the web, and boasts a robust marketing campaign from 20^th Century Fox. While teenage girls may prefer to see The Woman in Black, their boyfriends (who history shows often make the decision) are probably more excited about this superhero film. Found-footage seems to be all the rage among audiences these days, between The Devil Inside and the Paranormal Activity movies, and I can’t imagine this film bucking that trend. It should open similarly to another teen superhero movie released last February, I Am Number Four, which was based on a popular book series but had nowhere near this level of positive early buzz. That would give Chronicle a strong $19.4 million for the weekend, almost double what it cost to make.

Then there’s the family film Big Miracle, about the 1988 rescue of three whales trapped behind a wall of ice off the coast of Barrow, Alaska. It’s amiable fun for the whole family, but there are no indications that Universal will be able to do here what Warner Bros. did last year with Dolphin Tale. Instead, it’s probably looking at a number closer to Soul Surfer ($10.6m), which was likewise made for families and based on a true story. That said, the number will probably be a bit lower, because Soul Surfer benefited from church-group buyouts. (However, this otherwise benefits the comparison, because it resulted in Soul Surfer taking a big hit on its opening Sunday, as Big Miracle will, due to the Super Bowl.) Thus, I’m pegging Big Miracle at a ho-hum $9 million opening – its only chance at profitability rests in the potential for terrific word-of-mouth, which is reasonably high.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Chronicle … $19.4 m ($6,674 PTA)
2. The Woman in Black … $12.4m ($4,343 PTA)
3. The Grey … $10.0m ($3,117 PTA) -49.1%
4. Big Miracle … $9.0m ($4,229 PTA)
5. One for the Money … $6.3m ($2,302 PTA) -45.3%
6. Underworld Awakening … $6.2m ($2,352 PTA) -49.8%
7. Red Tails … $5.7m ($2,429 PTA) -44.5%
8. The Descendants … $4.2m ($2,061 PTA) -34.4%
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close … $4.1m ($1,637 PTA) -41.3%
10. Man on a Ledge … $3.5m ($1,167 PTA) -56.3%