Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Jan 21

This weekend brings us two new wide releases from legendary directors in their respective genres: Ivan Reitman’s (romantic) comedy No Strings Attached and Peter Weir’s epic The Way Back.

The Natalie Portman/Ashton Kutcher vehicle stands in good company as a January romantic-comedy. In fact, one of Kutcher’s biggest hits in the genre, Just Married ($17.5m / $20.7m inflated), was also released this month, back in 2003. But there is one factor that arguably makes No Strings Attached a completely different animal: it’s rated R. This status narrows the list of comparisons considerably. Given the advertising campaign for the film has been strong and it has momentum from star Natalie Portman’s ultra-publicized pregnancy and awards-sweep for Black Swan, there isn’t much risk of it tanking ala Going the Distance ($6.9m). Instead, the Katherine Heigl/Gerard Butler offering The Ugly Truth ($27.6m), which was likewise both sexually frank and a chick-flick, seems more apt. That film’s figure would be on the high end of expectations for No Strings Attached, however, because it was released during the summer, a season that boasts higher attendance. But a $20m+ opening definitely seems likely, and is further supported by the first weekend gross of another recent R-rated (albeit older-skewing) rom-com, It’s Complicated ($22.1m). Giving No Strings Attached a healthy per-theater average of $7,500, I’ll venture to guess it opens to $22.6 million.

On the completely opposite end of the spectrum is this weekend’s other release, Weir’s escape epic The Way Back starring Colin Farrell and Ed Harris, which is generating very little box-office buzz. Despite very positive reviews and dark-horse Oscar hopes, the film is only set to be released in 650 sites and general audience awareness seems to be low. Available comparisons are sparse. The New World, which also starred Farrell and went wide in January (raking in $4 million from 811 sites), isn’t a bad start. Extending the thought-bubble, The Other Boleyn Girl was likewise a period piece released early in the year in a modest number of theaters (to a $7,035 per-theater average), but it had much greater appeal for women due to the known backstory and the presence of Scarlett Johansson and (ironically) Natalie Portman. How about last January’s The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, another movie from a smallish distributor with an acclaimed director and big stars, but limited buzz? That one only took in $1.8m from 607 locations. Aw, hell, I’m so lost here, I’ll just calculate the mean of those three films’ per-theater averages and call it my prediction… Which would give The Way Back a rather tepid (but not unexpected) opening of $3.2 million.

Also opening in limited release is The Company Men, starring Ben Affleck and Tommy Lee Jones, about the human impact of corporate downsizing. Once thought to be an Oscar contender, the film is now struggling for any recognition. This 106-theater weekend is really crucial in determining its future fate; if it tops $1m for a $10k+ PTA), then it will have a shot at a nice wide release. If it fails to hit that number, this guy is DOA.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. No Strings Attached … $22.6m ($7,488 PTA)

2. The Green Hornet … $16.1m ($4,492 PTA) -52.0%

3. The Dilemma … $9.3m ($3,159 PTA) -47.8%

4. True Grit … $8.5m ($2,454 PTA) -22.8%

5. The King’s Speech … $7.2m ($4,286 PTA) -21.6%

6. Black Swan … $5.8m ($2,410 PTA) -30.5%

7. The Fighter … $4.0m ($1,758 PTA) -21.6%

8. Little Fockers … $3.9m ($1,307 PTA) -45.8%

9. Tron: Legacy … $3.4m ($1,685 PTA) -40.1%

10. The Way Back … $3.2m ($4,923 PTA)