Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 1

Welcome back to the weekly box office predictions column. In one major way, this weekend is easier to predict than usual: Transformers: Dark of the Moon has already opened (my review) and can easily be compared to its predecessor, which was also released on a Wednesday. But anything can happen on a four-day holiday weekend, and there are still two Friday releases (Tom Hanks’ Larry Crowne and Selena Gomez’ Monte Carlo) to grapple with, so buckle your seat-belts, folks…

Thus far, Transformers: Dark of the Moon has vastly underperformed its predecessor in the franchise, Revenge of the Fallen, but it definitely shows signs of having better legs through the long weekend. Revenge of the Fallen opened to $62 million Wednesday and then dipped 53.1% to $29.1m on Thursday. Dark of the Moon, on the other hand, opened to $43.2m on Wednesday (including Tuesday 9 p.m. previews) and then fell only 49.8% to $21.5m on Thursday (early figure). Audiences also seem to like this one considerably more than Revenge of the Fallen (it got an A CinemaScore, vs. Revenge’s B+), so general sentiment supports the figures. Thus, I think it’s fair to give Dark of the Moon’s Friday and Saturday figures that same 3.3% boost in terms of their proportional ratio to Wednesday, as compared to Revenge of the Fallen. That would put Friday at $27.0m and Saturday at $29.6m. Additionally, for the purposes of Sunday and Monday, we must consider that the last film was not released during a four-day holiday frame. The last time the 4th of July fell on a Monday, Transformers-producer Steven Spielberg’s War of the Worlds was the blockbuster release. It fell 14.7% on Sunday, then 38.4% on Monday, figures that seem perfectly applicable here. That would put Sunday at $21.8m and Monday at $13.4m. Add all those figures together and you get $91.8 million for the Transformers: Dark of the Moon four-day weekend opening. To some extent, the ratio at which ticket-buyers attend more expensive IMAX and 3-D shows, proportional to Wednesday and Thursday, will move this figure up/down.

For the over-40 crowd, there is Larry Crowne, starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts. These two paired up relatively recently in Charlie Wilson’s War, but comparing this film to that one is an iffy proposition, as Charlie was released in December, notorious for soft openings and long legs. A more apt comparison–in fact, a perfect one–is The Terminal, another lighthearted romantic-comedy starring Hanks in 2004. That film opened to $19.1m, $22.9m with inflation. Given the lack of a film for adults outside of Midnight in Paris (which is still rather limited in appeal, despite its success), I think that strong figure is reasonable. It also matches up with Roberts’ release from last year, Eat Pray Love, which opened to $23.1m in August, targeted at much the same crowd. The only question that remains is how much Larry Crowne will drop on Monday. For this, let’s look at The Terminal’s 4th of July weekend performance (during its third overall weekend): its gross on the 4th accounted for a 27% share of its other three-days. Applying that to Larry Crowne’s predicted $22.9m three-day figure, you get a Monday of $6.2m and a total four-day weekend of $29.1 million.

Then there’s Selena Gomez and Leighton Meester’s travelogue for teenyboppers, Monte Carlo. The only things I know about Ms. Gomez: 1) she was a Disney channel star, 2) she’s dating Justin Bieber, and 3) her tremendously annoying song plays at movie theaters every eight minutes. I think of two movies when I think of Monte Carlo: former tween star Hilary Duff’s Raise Your Voice and The Perfect Man, which were released at the height of her “Lizzie McGuire” fame but tanked because they did not feature the Lizzie McGuire character. They grossed $4.0m and $5.3m in their respective opening weekends, in a similar number of theaters to Monte Carlo. Inflated and then averaged, those figures make a three-day weekend of $5.6m. Giving it a healthy 4th of July gross, I’m predicting the four-day total on Monte Carlo comes to $7.4 million.

My prediction of what the full four-day top 10 will look like:

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon … $91.8m ($22,876 PTA)
2. Cars 2 … $49.0m ($11,908 PTA) -33.0%
3. Larry Crowne … $29.1m ($9,791 PTA)
4. Bad Teacher … $21.4m ($7,019 PTA) -39.9%
5. Green Lantern … $13.1m ($3,994 PTA) -35.0%
6. Super 8 … $10.2m (no PTA available) -24.7%
7. Mr. Popper’s Penguins … $8.5m ($2,971 PTA) -26.1%
8. Monte Carlo … $7.4m ($2,994 PTA)
9. X-Men: First Class … $5.2m ($3,246 PTA) -31.0%
10. Bridesmaids … $5.0m ($3,602 PTA) -16.2%