Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 17

Greetings and apologies for the absence of last week’s box office column, which was the result of a nasty bug that infected us here at Bucket Reviews headquarters. It was a rather uneventful weekend, anyway, as the vastly overrated Super 8 was the only big opener, taking in a so-so $35.4 million. Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer, which went unseen by me because I was duly warned of its awfulness by critics who saw it at the press screening, opened to a paltry $6.1m. And Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris expanded healthily to $5.8m on 944 screens for a per-theater average of over $6,000, making it Sony Pictures Classics’ biggest hit in over five years. This week brings us two mega openers (WB’s The Green Lantern and Fox’s Mr. Popper’s Penguins) and a modest Fox Searchlight release (The Art of Getting By), so without further adieu…

Green Lantern is the latest mega-budgeted (some sources say $300m for production and P&A) comic-book adaptation to hit screens in, oh, two weeks. That rather soft $55.1m opening for X-Men: First Class is admittedly cause for concern — are viewers tired of this type of movie, not even two months into summer? The folks at Warner Bros certainly hope not, but it’s worth pointing out that if this movie performed as well as X-Men, it would be well in line with tracking (not a disappointment). And indeed, the number makes sense because the mid-50s-to-low-60s range has become the domain of the ‘less popular’ superhero. Hulk opened to $62.2m and The Incredible Hulk to $55.4m. Fantastic Four and its sequel opened to $56.1m and $58.1m, respectively. Or what about Hancock ($62.6m)? The question is on what end of the range the movie will skew. I’m going to predict that it makes $55 million exactly, because it would break my heart if such a poorly reviewed film beat the terrific X-Men: First Class. Unfortunately, given the questionable tastes of mainstream audiences, it probably will.

Mr. Popper’s Penguins has taken a beating in industry tracking in recent weeks, with some sources pegging it for an opening around $20m or even lower. I don’t buy it — Jim Carrey isn’t Eddie Murphy just yet, folks. Let’s not forget that his take on Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (which skewed older, but was likewise PG) scored $30m back in 2004, the equivalent of $35.9m today. Also, the Mike Myers atrocity The Cat in the Hat (another adaptation of a children’s book, albeit a more popular one) scored $38.3m in 2003, $47m inflated. Based on those two statistics and the fact that this weekend is the first of summer vacation for most young kids, I don’t believe Mr. Popper’s Penguins could be a $20m flop. I will heed the warning of the tracking and refrain from making a through-the-roof prediction (as I did with the aforementioned X-Men: First Class two weeks ago), but still: I think Mr. Popper’s Penguins is good for $29 million.

Last and probably least (unless Green Lantern or Mr. Popper’s Penguins is a full-scale atrocity) is the terrible teenybopper indie The Art of Getting By. My review is embargoed until Midnight tonight, but rest assured: the gloves will come off. Thankfully, there is a perfect comparison for the movie, so I don’t have to spend too much time on it: last year’s It’s Kind of a Funny Story, which also starred Emma Roberts. That film grossed $2m on 742 screens with a similarly-sized marketing campaign. However, it also received much better reviews than The Art of Getting By, which are vital to the success of any “small” movie. Thus, I will predict that Art only manages to do a roughly equal per-theater average on a hundred or so less screens (610 to be exact), giving it a non-starter opening of $1.7 million.

My prediction of what the full top 10 11 will look like:

1. Green Lantern … $55m ($14,413 PTA)
2. Mr. Popper’s Penguins … $29m ($8,688 PTA)
3. Super 8 … $20.9m ($6,133 PTA) -41.0%
4. X-Men: First Class … $13.1m ($3,883 PTA) -45.7%
5. Kung Fu Panda 2 … $10.4m ($2,998 PTA) -37.1%
6. The Hangover Part II … $10.0m ($2,890 PTA) -43.4%
7. Bridesmaids … $8.1m ($3,297 PTA) -20.5%
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides … $6.8m ($2,480 PTA) -37.9%
9. Midnight in Paris … $4.7m ($4,528 PTA) -19.4%
10. Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer … $3.4m ($1,347 PTA) -44.1%
11. The Art of Getting By … $1.7m ($2,787 PTA)