Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 24

Hello and welcome back to my weekly box office predictions column. Last week, I  nailed my safe bet (Green Lantern) and missed the mark on my gamble (Mr. Popper’s Penguins). However, even if the Jim Carrey family comedy failed to materialize on opening weekend, I predict that it will have great summertime legs, even with the presence of the competing kiddie-flick Cars 2. I saw it opening day with a decent sized crowd and the youngsters loved it, while the parents appeared to be tolerating it. That’s the recipe for (eventual) success in the genre, so I’ll double down on my original prediction by arguing that Popper’s will have a strong second weekend showing.

But Disney/Pixar’s Cars 2 will definitely be the box office story that everyone is talking about this weekend. In light of soft tracking and Pixar’s first bad reviews to date, many prognosticators are predicting doomsday — as low as $55 million, even with the sales-boosters of 3-D and IMAX (in select markets). Indeed, Cars 2 will probably slump where more intellectually hefty Pixar works succeed: the more affluent, coastal markets. But what most analyts are failing to consider is that the movie will definitely open far stronger in states like Iowa and North Carolina than WALL-E or Ratatouille. Furthermore, the same people saying that Cars 2 will be a comparative flop for Pixar also seem to be the ones that hated the original Cars, which was actually well-liked by the general populace and had tremendous legs ($60.1m opening weekend, $244 total). Opinions on the Internet often do not match those of ordinary people, and animation is one area in which this is especially true, as the primary target audience to please is kids. Take, for instance, the Madagascar movies. The original opened to $47.2m and had excellent legs, reaching a total of nearly $200m, despite a Tomatometer score of 55%, much worse than the original Cars’ actually pretty-good 74%. I suspect that Cars 2, even with a 35% Tomatometer score, will be a similar case. To err on the side of caution, let’s assume that some who saw the original do not return for the sequel, but that they are offset by the increased revenues from 3-D and IMAX. This would put the sequel dead-even with the original. Accounting for inflation from 2006 to 2011, that would give Cars 2 an opening weekend of $67.4 million.

Then there’s the Cameron Diaz raunch-com Bad Teacher, directed by frequent Judd Apatow-collaborator Jake Kasdan (The TV Set, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story). The trailers were very funny in my opinion, but the appeal of this one could be somewhat narrow. It’s a hard R, so you won’t get any under-17 ticket-buyers, who are a big market for comedies over opening-weekend. Keep in mind that Bridesmaids, the big original R-rated comedy hit of the summer, only grossed $26.2m in its opening weekend, catching on with most viewers later in its run. Also, Diaz’ relationship with the older actress who plays Phyllis on TV’s “The Office” has been played up a lot in the trailers and the TV spots, nearly reflecting a buddy-comedy, which is not the most mainstream of sales-pitches. (At megaplexes, the segment that would get the most laughs was always Jason Segel’s LeBron vs. Jordan speech, which is far broader in its appeal.) Lastly, the reviews aren’t great (45% on the Tomatometer), and they definitely matter when it comes to attracting older viewers. But between the soaring success of Bridesmaids and The Hangover Part II, audiences have definitely proven they have an appetite for comedy, so it seems highly unlikely that Bad Teacher would open to less than mid-teens. Bad Santa seems to be the R-rated dark comedy that critics are comparing this film to, so let’s run with that comparison. The Billy Bob Thornton-starrer grossed $12.3m back in 2003. But with Diaz’ presence, Bad Teacher should gain a sizable female contingent that Bad Santa didn’t get, so I am adjusting that gross up 33% to account for this. Factoring in inflation, that gives Bad Teacher a healthy opening weekend of $20.1 million.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Cars 2 … $67.4m ($16,379 PTA)
2. Bad Teacher … $20.1m ($6,592 PTA)
3. Green Lantern … $18.6m ($4,874 PTA) -65.0%
4. Super 8 … $13.0m ($3,797 PTA) -39.5%
5. Mr. Popper’s Penguins … $12.0m ($3,591 PTA) -34.9%
6. X-Men: First Class … $6.6m ($2,507 PTA) -44.7%
7. The Hangover Part II … $5.6m ($2,033 PTA) -44.4%
8. Kung Fu Panda 2 … $5.4m ($2,137 PTA) -40.2%
9. Bridesmaids … $5.0m ($2,474 PTA) -29.6%
10. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides … $4.0m ($1,783 PTA) -39.8%