Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Mar 25

It would appear that my big return to box office forecasting last weekend didn’t turn out so well, as all three films–Limitless, The Lincoln Lawyer, and Paul–outperformed my conservative predictions. In the case of the first film, the gap was quite large. But the unique thing about playing this game is that completely educated guesses can be just as wrong as random ones. As a former film professor taught me, the only business that is less predictable than Hollywood is wildcat oil drilling. So, without further adieu, I once again try to predict the unpredictable…

Unfortunately for me, this weekend isn’t going to be any easier to predict than last. Some are forecasting that Zack Snyder’s FX-heavy Sucker Punch will be a blockbuster hit, rallying to an opening as high as $40 million, but others are calling this the next Speed Racer, a big-budget bomb that will struggle to hit $20 million. Then there’s the sequel to 2010’s surprise hit, Diary of a Wimpy Kid. The original wasn’t well reviewed, but it received a strong “A-” CinemaScore in audience exit polls, suggesting that this sequel could benefit from a year’s worth of word-of-mouth. But with the focus shifting somewhat from the protagonist to his older brother, as reflected by the title and promotional materials, nothing is certain.

The big problem in making a guess as to Sucker Punch’s opening weekend gross is that there aren’t many comparable films. While the movie’s uniqueness may benefit it artistically (though early reviews suggest otherwise), it makes it a big financial gamble. Director Snyder’s previous CGI-heavy epics, 300 and Watchmen, were both R-rated pictures with built-in male audiences. If Sucker Punch opens as high as either of those films (300 did $70.9m and Watchmen did $55.2m), then the apocalypse may be near. An all-female cast in what is essentially a guy movie may prove a tough sell (no matter how attractive the cast is), and the film’s status as an original (not an adaptation) may hurt it in terms of geek attendance. Without clear comparisons, all I can think to do is average reasonable extremes: the aforementioned Speed Racer’s $18.6m and, say, Salt’s $36m (they’re both PG-13 action flicks with female stars). That would give Sucker Punch a three-day total of $27.3 million.

While Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 belongs to a much more familiar genre, there is a similar lack of comparisons. Why? Because it is one of very few sequels to children’s book adaptations… and the others are mega-blockbusters like the Harry Potter and Night at the Museum films, which are hardly synonymous. So the only comparison we really have is the original’s $22.1 million. I think the sequel will improve on that number for the following reasons: 1) the aforementioned “A-” CinemaScore, indicating audiences liked the first film and told their friends; 2) the simple fact that passing time means more kids have read the Wimpy Kid books and therefore have an urge to see the adaptations; and 3) Rango offers nowhere near the competition that Alice and Wonderland did last year. Some may argue that the added focus on the Rodrick character may hurt attendance, but I figure that many readers probably like him even more than protagonist Greg and, being a teenager, Rodrick may draw in some older viewers that the first film did not. With all that going for it, I predict that Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 will bring in a healthy first-weekend $25 million, which is more than its entire production budget.

So there you go, another horse race for #1. Let’s hope that I’m not as wrong as last week, for I don’t think my credibility can take another beating that severe. But even if it does, I’ll stick my neck on the line once again next Thursday, because in Hollywood, anyone’s best guess is as good as the next person’s.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Sucker Punch … $27.3m ($9,001 PTA)
2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 … $25.0m ($7,894 PTA)
3. Limitless … $9.4m ($3,351 PTA) -50.3%
4. Rango … $9.2m ($2,524 PTA) -39.0%
5. The Lincoln Lawyer … $7.9m ($2,918 PTA) -40.2%
6. Battle: Los Angeles … $7.3m ($2,341 PTA) -49.8%
7. Paul … $7.3m ($2,602 PTA) -44.0%
8. The Adjustment Bureau … $3.6m ($1,580 PTA) -37.6%
9. Red Riding Hood … $3.6m ($1,326 PTA) -49.9%
10. Mars Needs Moms … $3.1m ($1,429 PTA) -41.7%