Box Office Predictions – Weekend of Aug 5

After two weeks of publishing an abridged version of this column due to the craze of Comic-Con, I’m back with the full spiel. Good thing, too, because the predictions on this weekend’s big opener and unexpected critical darling, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, are all over the map, so making a substantiated guess is a must. The hard-R rated The Change-Up also comes out and, despite some low industry tracking estimates, I think there is still hope yet for the Jason Bateman/Ryan Reynolds body-swapping flick. So, without further adieu, let’s crunch numbers.

The general consensus amongst prognosticators seems to be that Rise of the Planet of the Apes will open in the $50 million range, but I think that the very positive early world may propel it even higher. X-Men: First Class, which opened to $55.1m earlier this summer, was similarly well-reviewed and appealing to all ages of males. Making the comparison even more apt is the fact that both films serve as origin stories to established franchises but feature all-new casts (granted, the original X-Men films are more familiar to younger viewers). For the record, the most recent Apes picture, Tim Burton’s largely maligned 2001 version, opened to $68.5m, or a whopping $87.4m accounting for inflation, but this one seems unlikely to reach that sky-high figure. Another good comparison, I think, is Peter Jackson’s 2005 King Kong, which likewise had actor Andy Serkis delivering a motion-capture primate performance. It opened to $50.1m, or $57.9m inflated — right in the same range as X-Men: First Class. In fact, I think I will put my prediction at the average of those two openings, giving Rise of the Planet of the Apes an initial three-day frame of $56.5 million.

Despite faring poorly in early surveys of audience interest, I simply cannot see The Change-Up tanking. Sure, the critics have not been kind, but when was the last time that mattered for the opening weekend of an R-rated broad comedy with two well-liked stars? Hell, even January’s abysmally reviewed, deceptively marketed Kevin James/Vince Vaughn vehicle, The Dilemma, opened to a respectable $17.8m. (Yes, it was PG-13, but that can actually hurt a buddy comedy… not to mention the fact that R-rated comedies have done tremendously well this summer, from Bridesmaids to The Hangover Part II to Bad Teacher to Friends with Benefits…) Furthermore, I have seen the trailer for The Change-Up with over half a dozen public audiences and it has gone over big, with belly-laughs echoing through the theater every time. Plus, body-swapping movies have historically been successful (think Freaky Friday, 17 Again, 13 Going on 30, and even Rob Schneider’s The Hot Chick), and this movie adds an adult dimension to the successful formula. Also consider that director David Dobkin hasn’t had a real bomb yet in his Hollywood career; Wedding Crashers was an astronomical success and, while perhaps a bit soft, Shanghai Knights and Fred Claus both posted   solid totals ($60.5m and $72m, respectively). I will heed the warnings of the pre-release research and not make a gutsily high prediction, but I definitely think that The Change-Up will be able to manage $20 million at the least over its opening weekend.

My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes … $56.5m ($15,515 PTA)
2. The Change-Up … $20.0m ($6,866 PTA)
3. Cowboys & Aliens … $18.9m ($5,035 PTA) -48.1%
4. The Smurfs … $17.1m ($5,037 PTA) -52.0%
5. Captain America: The First Avenger … $14.0m ($3,867 PTA) -45.2%
6. Crazy, Stupid, Love. … $12.4m ($4,106 PTA) -35.1%
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 … $11.9m ($3,748 PTA) -45.9%
8. Friends with Benefits … $5.5m ($2,294 PTA) -40.7%
9. Horrible Bosses … $4.6m ($2,272 PTA) -36.0%
10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon … $3.0m ($1,618 PTA) -50.7%